Why Donald Trump Achieved a Major Step in the Middle East But Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian presidential summit have been overstated, it seems.
Only a few days after Donald Trump said he planned to meet Russian President Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary meeting by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, as well.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump informed reporters at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I'll see what happens."
- Trump says he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Disappointment in Kyiv as Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed
The on-again, off-again meeting is just the latest development in Trump's attempts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the American leader after he arranged a truce and prisoner exchange agreement in Gaza.
During a speech in Egypt last week to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, the president addressed Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get Russia done," he declared.
However, the circumstances that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for the negotiation team may be difficult to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for nearing several years.
Less Leverage
Per the lead negotiator, the crucial element to achieving a agreement was Israel's move to strike representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a move that angered America's Arab allies but provided Trump bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump gained from a history of supporting the Israeli state since his initial presidency, including his decision to move the US embassy to the contested city, to alter US policy on the legality of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, more recently, his backing for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, actually, is better regarded among Israelis than their prime minister – a situation that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.
Add in the president's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, Trump has significantly reduced leverage. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to strong-arm the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has warned to enact additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that doing so could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the war.
Meanwhile, the president has publicly berated Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off information exchange with the country and pausing arms shipments to the nation - only to then retreat in the face of worried European partners who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.
Trump often boasts about his skill to sit down and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the war any closer to a resolution.
Putin may actually be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a means of influencing him.
In July, Putin consented to a summit in Alaska at the time when it appeared likely that the president would approve on congressional sanctions package backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently put on hold.
Recently, as news emerged that the White House was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the president of Russia called Trump who then promoted the possible meeting in Budapest.
The next day, the president welcomed Zelensky at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a reportedly tense meeting.
Trump maintained that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I've been played all my life by skilled operators, and I came out successfully," he said.
However the president of Ukraine later commented on the timeline of developments.
"Once the issue of long-range mobility became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy," he stated.
Thus, in a short period, Trump has shifted from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to Ukraine to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – including territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has finally settled on advocating a truce along current battle lines – a proposal Russia has rejected.
During his election campaign previously, the candidate promised that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has subsequently abandoned that pledge, saying that ending the hostilities is proving harder than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his power – and the difficulty of finding a framework for peace when both parties desires, or can afford to, cease hostilities.