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Two days to go.

England's opening match in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we look at where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be decided.

It’s challenging to make runs, isn't it?

Batters on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are even planning to turn up.

Much of the build-up has centred around the perceived difficulty of batting successfully, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average under 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have stepped up.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, featuring a win against England in Adelaide four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, results have remained strong – England should take heed.

Tough at the top

Remember when England could not find an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a reason in Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who famously struck the first ball of the previous Ashes for four, has also been identified as having the game for Australia.

His batting average increases when the pace increases.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 matches.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, most likely returning to number three.

Across seven matches in 2025, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, though Lyon's record holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was introduced, meaning the spinner has less space to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a depressing habit of being beaten in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

The series began in the Gabba, where they have not won since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the itinerary are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

Perth stages an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the visitors approach with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now not used to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have won four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India last year.

Each match at the new venue has been claimed by the team batting first.

England often overthink floodlit Tests, when data suggest the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|